Conflict Alerts # 624, 18 April 2024
Shamini Velayutham In the news
On 19 April, according to Reuters, in retaliation to Iran’s drone attack, Israel has targeted a military factory which belongs to the Iranian army in Isfahan. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that there has been no damage to Iran’s nuclear sites. IAEA in its X post stated: “Chief Rafael Grossi continues to call for extreme restraint from everybody and reiterates that nuclear facilities should never be a target in military conflicts.”
On 18 April, the US vetoed a draft resolution which suggested granting Palestine a "full membership" at the UN General Assembly. 12 members voted in favour while the UK and Switzerland abstained. Robert Wood, Deputy US Ambassador to the UN, stated: "The United States continues to strongly support a two-state solution. This vote does not reflect opposition to Palestinian statehood."
On 18 April, during a meeting between senior US officials and their Israeli counterparts, the US expressed concerns over Israel's plan for military operation in Rafah. On 14 April, the US President, Joe Biden, stated: "I condemn these attacks in the strongest possible terms." He added that the US "remains vigilant to all threats." The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, stated that the US would continue to support Israel's defence and does not seek further escalation in the region.
On 17 April, Iran's President, Ebrahim Raisi, expressed his concern over a threat of "full-scale war" in the Middle East. He stated: "The tiniest attack by Israel would bring a massive and harsh response." On 15 April, the chief of Staff of the Israel military, Herzi Halevi, stated that his country would respond to Iran's attack despite the international warning of further escalation in the region.
On 17 April, Qatar's Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, stated that the country is "re-evaluating" its role as a mediator in securing a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, referring that its efforts were undermined by some parties for "narrow political interest." He added there has been an uptick of accusations and criticisms against Qatar supporting Hamas and that negotiators are trying to "move forward and put an end to the suffering that the people in Gaza are experiencing and return the hostages."
On 14 April, Netanyahu, in his first public comment after Iran's attack, stated: "We intercepted. We blocked. Together we will win." He added: "We appreciate the US standing alongside Israel, as well as the support of Britain, France and many other countries. We have determined a clear principle: Whoever harms us, we will harm them. We will defend ourselves against any threat and will do so level-headedly and with determination."
On 13 April, Iran launched 300 drones and missiles towards Israel in response to Israel's attack on 1 April on its consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, killing seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and two commanders.
Issues at large
First, the long-standing fragile Israel-Iran relationship. Iran and Israel have been at loggerheads. Since 1983, Israel targeted Iran with drone strikes and assassinations of Iranian leaders. Iran's nuclear program, which Israel views as an existential threat, was has been a major target for the latter. In 2010, Israel, along with the US, developed a computer virus, Stuxnet, to attack the uranium facility at Iran's nuclear site. It was the first cyberattack launched by Israel. Iran has been using its proxies in Yemen and Lebanon, targeting Israel and its allies in the region.
Second, efforts to de-escalate. The US and other countries have urged Israel to restrain from escalating the conflict. The US, the UK, the EU, and the G7 countries have new sanctions on Iran, targeting entities and leaders connected to the IRGC, the Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces Logistics, and the Iranian government's drone and missile program.
Third, the regional response. Following the drone attack, regional actors such as Jordan and Iraq have been vigilant. To secure its air space, along with the US, the UK, and other countries, Jordan thwarted Iranian missiles, which were launched in its air space against Israel. In solidarity with Iran, its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen, fired dozens of rockets at the Israeli military in the Golan Heights. They launched unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) targeting Israeli ports.
In perspective
First, a new escalation in the Middle East. Iran's attack on Israel is seen as the first confrontation without the support of its proxies.
Second, despite the minimal damage, Israel has vowed to respond. Palestinians claim that Iran has the right to defend itself. The sanctions on Iran by Western, European, and Arab countries intend to appease Israel to limit its retaliation. The immediate neighbours' alignment with the US and Israel may result in a surge of attacks by Iranian proxies.